Find out how much your vote today is really worth

If you live in the Leaver Isle of Wight it’s worth less than a fifth of a vote in the Remainer Western Isles

Brexit Facts4EU.Org reveals the shocking disparity in electorate size in each UK seat

On election day we bring you some facts about about the value of each vote across the United Kingdom. The results may shock many readers.

At the time of writing the polls have not even opened, so no-one knows the result of the 2019 General Election. Predictions range from another hung Parliament, to a resounding victory and outright majority for the Conservatives.

If the result is close, it will have huge ramifications for the future direction of the country. There have been discussions about postal voting fraud, tactical voting, so-called “fake news”, online advertising, and many other things.

One issue which possibly has more influence on the outcome than the other issues has not even been discussed. Below, Brexit Facts4EU.Org sheds some light on this.

There are 650 constituencies in the United Kingdom – how equal are they in size?

Most people assume that the 650 constituencies making up the UK Parliament are roughly equal in size. In other words, each MP broadly represents a similar number of people and therefore votes are of approximately equal value. Our research shows that this is not the case.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

How the size of each constituency radically determines the value of each vote

(All data comes from the last official figures from the Electoral Commission and ONS, for the 2017 election)

The MP for the Western Isles of Scotland (now called Na h-Eileanan an Iar) represents only 21301 voters
They voted to Remain by 55.2%
The MP for the Isle of Wight represents a massive 111,683 voters
They voted to Leave by 62.0%
Other things being equal, a vote on the Isle of Wight is worth less than one-fifth of a vote on the Western Isles
The 10 most over-represented constituencies are all in Wales and Scotland
The 10 most under-represented constituencies are all in England

Below are the 10 most over-represented constituencies in Parliament

And below are 10 most under-represented constituencies in Parliament

Observations

The decision-making power for ensuring that constituency boundaries reflect a fair representation for every voter in the United Kingdom rests with Parliament itself.

The independent Boundaries Commission is given the responsibility to analyse and make recommendations. It has already reported and made significant recommendations. This happened under David Cameron’s government. Parliament has yet to implement any of these.

This is a complex matter to get right. It can be argued that smaller constituencies have a distinct identity and different needs to the rest of the country, for example.

Nevertheless, when each and every MP has an equal vote on matters such as Brexit, why should the voters in the Western Isles (55% Remain) be able to exercise through their MP an influence which is more than five times that of voters in the Isle of Wight (62% Leave)?

You will not see this analysis (using official data) anywhere else. If you would like to continue to read our research and punchy reports, please make a donation today. We really need your help to keep going. Quick and secure donation methods are below this article. Thank you.

[ Sources: Electoral Commission | ONS | Prof Hanretty's definitive analysis of Referendum results by constituency ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 12 Dec 2019

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Reader Comments 20

1. Concerned , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 08:44:

Very interesting way of looking at how one's vote is representative of the whole.
May God look kindly down on the UK voters today as they vote and I hope and pray that the Liberals, Labour, SNP and Greens are trounced by the Conservatives, Brexit Party, Raving Loony, For Britain, Veterans - anyone except socialists.
It is highest time socialists were eradicated from the political landscape.

2. Patrick F , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 10:28:

Dear Greg Clark MP,
As I informed you when we met in November 2019 I would not be voting for you in this year's GE.
I have kept my word.
You will almost certainly win in Tunbridge Wells, but your majority will be reduced by your constituents who believe in democracy and Brexit.
Patrick F.

3. James Bertram , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 10:36:

If you spoil your ballot paper, note that your vote is counted, and that you are part of the overall turnout figure. (It is much better to spoil your ballot paper than not turnout.)
Today, in a constituency where the Brexit Party candidate has been stood down, I have returned my ballot paper inscribed with a felt pen in a bright florescent soft blue - THE BREXIT PARTY.
Unmistakeable, and possibly one that will be photographed by the local media as historically summing up today's election.

4. Sydney Ashurst , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 11:11:

The Telegraphs Europe Editor is saying the Brussels bureaucracy (not the member States) does not want a hung UK Parliament nor a Corbyn Government.
Having failed after three years to keep the UK in full membership, better to move on and negotiate with Boris Johnson the closest deal they can to a Customs Union and level playing field achievable.
A clear demonstration that the un-elected politically appointed President of the European Commission and panoply of Commissionaires are figure-heads reliant on the administrators.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has this to say: Never forget that the EU has become - structurally and legally - a corporatist-capitalist alliance that forbids its members to pursue genuinely left-wing policies. Syriza learned this the hard way in Greece.
“If they wake up on Friday morning to a Corbyn government, the mood in Brussels will be close to panic,” said Andrew Duff, a veteran EU insider and president of the federalist Spinelli Group. “It would be a disaster. They don’t want a timebomb thrown into the European security system.”

5. Sydney Ashurst , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 11:31:

Off Topic - the state of UN insanity.
The 25,000 delegates who have flown to Madrid, Spain, for the COP25 climate conference look set to leave after two weeks of talking with nothing to show for their efforts aside from bitterness and chaos over the simple question: who – apart from the United States – will be called upon to pay the bills.
It was never going to be about the scientific problem, natural warming or anthropogenic CO2 and by how much.

6. John Finn , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 12:32:

I simply can't understand the motives of those who think spoiling ballot papers is a good idea. If the Tories win - Brexit is still in play. If they don't - it isn't. It's as simple as that. It's quite obvious there isn't a majority for a 'clean' Brexit. The combined Tories + Brexit Party vote will struggle to reach 46% and, as I've said before on this blog about a fifth of that share, will come from Remain voters.

7. tarien , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 13:08:

Above all things the Brexit Circus has given us a metaphorical microscope with which to examine the putrid innards of the Palace of Westminster and far beyond. It has exposed in detail the full extent of the devious workings of the establishment and its fellow travellers and their blatant contempt for democracy. It has most of all peeled back layer by layer the darkly flawed construct that is the EU and revealed the motivations, control mechanisms and future intent of those presumptive masters across the ditch.
I cannot claim to have written the above but those few words for me at least exemplify how it has been. Final resolution to this impasse will have to be either one of compliant submission or of spasmodic violent uprisings by those who now understand they have nothing left to lose but their children’s chains. If the former prevails, then we are lost for many generations to come.

8. James Bertram , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 13:11:

John, as expressed many times before, Johnson's Surrender Treaty (unamended) is not Brexit - it is worse than Remain, and will make us an EU colony - and break-up the Union. It is also more permanent than a Corbyn Government.
If the Tories get more than 330 seats (the polls are suggesting they will get about 350) they will be able to push it through without opposition. (If they get less than 300, they may have trouble forming the next government - so 317 seats would be an ideal number, whereby they would need a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP and/or Brexit Party).
No informed true-Leaver could vote for Johnson's EU Treaty.
It's as simple as that.

9. Sydney Ashurst , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 13:26:

John Finn
Spoiling ones ballot paper is an act of frustration with our Electoral system - first past the post. It leaves many of the electorate unrepresented in Parliament.
Contrast the difference between the European Parliament elections this year and ours. Out of a total of 73 MEP's the Brexit Party gained 29, equal to the total of the Conservative, Labour and LibDems combined.
The pollsters have it that the BXP will not gain one seat in the Commons. Will that be a fair democratic representation?
If Brexit is still in play how will it pan out. The referendum did not define Brexit possibly because Cameron did not believe it would happen The binary question left Parliament in a remain/leave struggle.

10. James Bertram , Thursday, December 12, 2019, 14:15:

A reminder of this website:
The Brexit Party
@brexitparty_uk
11m11 minutes ago
You have 8 hours left to vote. Leavers, don't waste your vote! Find out if you are in one of the 130 seats that the Conservatives haven't won for 50 years and won't win this time by clicking the link below.
https://leaversdontwasteyou...

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