1. Statistics

Teenage conceptions have been falling since records began in 1998. The EU Referendum has made no difference. Our figures above are correct, but they continue a downward trend over the past 25 years. The chart above shows conceptions (not necessarily full-term pregnancies) amongst 15-17 year-olds.

2. Forecasts

Economic forecasts are just that – forecasts. The polite way of putting this is “informed guesswork”.

For example the International Monetary Fund (IMF) now projects that the UK’s economy will grow faster next year than the EU’s top 3 economies of Germany, France and Italy.

Has the Facts4EU.Org team run a report on this? No. Why? Because the IMF’s forecasts are unreliable and constantly have to be revised, exactly like those of the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England.

Observations

The ONS provided no accompanying report to explain the continuing fall in teenage pregnancies; they only provided the numbers. Nevertheless this would seem to be good news.

Certainly the lockdowns will have been a factor in 2020/21 but this does not explain the overall fall. We showed the decrease since the EU Referendum to demonstrate that statistics can be used to support erroneous arguments. The reality is that teenage pregnancies have fallen steadily since the earliest data provided, in 1998.

When it comes to the Remainer-Rejoiner arguments of how much Brexit has hurt the UK, they generally rely on forecasts rather than facts. When the facts catch up with the forecasts and show them to have been wrong, they change the subject.

It falls to independent organisations such as Brexit Facts4EU.Org constantly to put the record straight.

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