2016 : Remainers threatened voters with immediate recession and 15 years of hell

Half-way through, Facts4EU summarises UK economic growth for the Remainer-Rejoiners

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

When will anyone responsible ever apologise to the British people for Project Fear?

We are now half-way through HM Treasury's 15-year "long-term forecast" of the impact of Brexit, which they published just before the UK-EU Referendum. Their forecast covered a period of 15 years. At the time we condemned the report.

Today we show how their figures were 'pie in the sky', as we predicted.

This document - with a foreword by the then Chancellor George Osborne - formed part of one of the greatest propaganda campaigns in British history. It was launched on the British people ahead of the EU Referendum in June 2016. It failed, but has anyone ever been held accountable?

The 2016 Remainer government of David Cameron and George Osborne, the Treasury, the Remain campaign, (and almost every ‘expert’ they could find) issued dire warnings that a recession would start immediately following a vote to leave the EU.

This recession never materialised.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

UK growth 2016 – 2023

2016 : No recession
2017 : No recession
2018 : No recession
2019 : No recession
2020 : Lockdowns recession
2021 : No recession
2022 : No recession
2023 : No recession

[Source: Latest OECD official data.]

Yes, the economy dipped a little in the final quarter of 2023 but we ended the year with positive growth overall, according to the OECD. (With the OECD being anti-British and anti-Brexit this leaves Rejoiners with nowhere to go.) And it could be worse. The UK could be like the EU's largest economy, Germany, which posted a 0.3% loss for 2023.

What follows must be seen against the Remainer government, Remain campaigns, and almost every 'expert' organisation they could find predicting that the UK economy would immediately "fall off a cliff" if the public voted to leave the EU.

Here is some of what the British public were threatened with if they voted 'Leave'

Enormously long technical documents were produced by the Government, the Treasury, the Bank of England and many others, all telling the public that the UK economy would “fall off a cliff” immediately, in the event of a vote to Leave the EU.

The public was told it would not have to wait. The impact would be severe and it would hit immediately. Here is a very small, random selection.

The relentless onslaught on the public by the Remainer Establishment

“A vote to leave would cause an immediate and profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty which would be compounded by the complex and interdependent negotiations that would follow. The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.”
- HM Treasury, May 2016

“We have looked at all the scenarios.
We have done our homework and we haven’t found anything positive to say about a Brexit vote.”
- Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Fri 13 May 2016

“With exactly one month to go to the referendum, the British people must ask themselves this question: can we knowingly vote for a recession? Does Britain really want this DIY recession? Because that’s what the evidence shows we’ll get if we vote to leave the EU.”
- Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, 23 May 2016

“The UK would be permanently poorer if it left the EU and adopted any of these models.”
“Annual loss of GDP per household would be £4,300”
- HM Treasury report, long-term economic impact of leaving the EU, April 2016

It was only in the small print that they said this was after 15 years. HMT can’t even forecast accurately one year ahead, let alone 15 years’ time. This is not our opinion; it is borne out by the facts.

“The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion:a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000”
- George Osborne in HM Treasury report, immediate economic impact of leaving the EU, 23 May 2016

No recession caused by the Leave vote, over 2 million more employed, not 520,000 jobs lost

The so-called ‘experts’ could not have been more wrong. In some cases – as with employment – the official figures show that the UK has done the polar opposite of what all these ‘experts’ predicted – by a factor of four.

Some might say the job losses which should have occurred should have been the positions of the thousands of economists, functionaries and politicians who were responsible for this grievous attempt to mislead the British public. And if they truly believed what they had been saying they should have resigned on principle, on the grounds of incompetence.

To the best of our knowledge, not one of them did so.

We must remember this

Choppy waters lie ahead. The UK is highly unlikely to top the G7 leaderboard in 2024 but there are other causes for this. Remember one thing: In the first two years after the UK (excluding NI) left the European Union, (2021-2022), the UK was the fastest-growing economy in the G7 group of developed nations.

Observations

The public need to know these facts and if we don't publish them who will? The public also deserve an apology from those who misled them. Nearly eight years on and we’re still waiting.

These errors were not minor. They were not "within normal margins of statistical error". These predictions on recessions were devastatingly wrong.

Let's not forget the delicious irony in all this

The supreme irony of all of this is that no-one we know who voted to leave the EU did so primarily on economic grounds. “It wasn’t the economy, stupid”, to paraphrase former President Bill Clinton quoting Carville. It was about independence, sovereignty, and democracy, and the ability to run our own affairs in our own interests.

This is something we are all still waiting for, with increasing impatience. Prime Minister please take note.

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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics | OECD | IMF | BoE | HM Treasury ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 27 Feb 2024

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Reader Comments 12

1. terence patrick hewett , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 06:26:

"Remainer" is a euphemism for those who would betray their own country: a genus of persons for which there is a whole glossary of rather more unpleasant words.

2. Captain Thunderbolt , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 06:26:

Hell hath no fury like a remainer scorned

3. Old Albion , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 07:31:

Fortunately the majority of those that voted in the referendum were able to recognise 'project fear' for what is was, propaganda (sometimes called bullsh*t)

4. Sparky , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 07:59:

The slogan led Leave campaign was a much more effective campaign, labelling the warnings as "Project Fear" worked. Measuring the success of Brexit against those claims is not realistic. Saying Brexit is its not as bad as predicted so it must be OK is not good enough when Brexit promised "sunlit uplands" and "no downsides, only upsides".

5. Ashley Great Britain , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 08:00:

They will never apologise and admit wrong doing.
Their whole ethos was to say and do anything to sway the British public to vote to remain.
That was the whole intention of allowing the vote, To put the EU question to bed forever.
The vote to leave would have been far higher if decent people weren't subjected to such propaganda.
Of course, And thank the stars they didn't get their wish.
We disobeyed them and voted to leave, Something which was never supposed to happen. They expected we would remain and all their lies and deceit would be hidden.
These players are treacherous poison to the nation.
They demonstrate daily how damaging and incompetent they truly are.
The only way to make them pay is to vote Reform UK.That means everyone. All past Labour and Conservative voters.
There truly is no hope for Britain under these two failed entities.
They expect your vote so they can continue with their own interests to your detriment.
We must send them to the pages of history.

6. Have You Wondered , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 09:09:

.
Interesting picture of Christine Lagarde. Is that the digital method of her calculations or did someone mention her conviction?
.

7. NH , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 11:46:

4. Sparky, "Saying Brexit is its not as bad as predicted so it must be OK is not good enough"
You seem to be putting all the responsibility on Brexit supporters. Maybe instead of the Remain Campaign constructing such a negative outlook for the UK they should have created a campaign based on all the positives aspects of EU membership that we could have experienced. Here's some suggestions:
.
Recession.
Lowest Growth of any World Economic Region.
Most Expensive Political System in the World.
Huge Increase in Costs Funded By Huge Mutual Debts.
Huge Costs to Maintain the Stability of the Euro.
Huge Further Increase in Costs to Fund EU Expansion.
Political System Which is Now Ungovernable.
Political System Which is Unfit for Purpose.
Uncontrolled Immigration Encouraged by EU Policies.
Once Dominant Industries Failing to Compete Due to EU Self Inflicted Policies.
Constant National Conflicts Preventing new Trade Deals.
EU Parliament at Risk of Being Dominated By Extreme Right Wing Political Parties.
The Cost and Consequences of the EU Green Deal.
A Region dominated by Public Funded Subsidies
High Unemployment.
.
As with the Remain Campaign the Rejoin Campaign has continued to focus on "how good it could have been for the UK" often using false information, selected statistics and biased ridiculous forecasts. They still don't seem to have anything good to say about the EU, I wonder why !

8. LuxuryBalloon , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 11:59:

Playing devils advocate: you could argue that remainers have watered down our Brexit.
We have not had a bonfire of EU rules, we are still aligning ourselves to the EU on many aspects, even rejoining the Horizon scheme, NI is still effectively a colony of the EU, EU fishermen are still fishing in our waters, the number of people crossing the channel in dinghies has increased exponentially.
Having a bad Brexit deal instead of going WTO has also not brought the benefits that Brexit could have brought.
And if Labour does get into No10, we will see more alignment with the EU and even less Brexit benefits.

9. Gazzablack , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 16:35:

4, sparkless
.
The reason the leave campaign was more effective was because it made a positive case for leaving.
.
The reason the remain campaign was less effective was because it couldn't make a positive case for remaining.

10. John Jones , Tuesday, February 27, 2024, 21:40:

8. LuxuryBalloon
You make extremely relevant & valid points.
Disentangling ourselves from 45 years of EEC/EU membership was never going to happen in 3 years post transition or real Brexit.
Brexit is a process & a long game - few Leavers really understand this.
There is good news though - the biggest benefits in my mind are:
a) a complete & absolute resetting of what became an abusive relationship
b) as time goes by, a natural almost automatic divergence from EU regulatory control which will take time to play out - it inevitably will.
The EU of 2016 indeed of 2021 is a much weaker beast - politically, economically and real vision - it isn't a place any informed country/person would wish to join given its imminent challenges - debt , defence & security, migration & political legitimacy.
Russia/Ukraine will occupy the EU for the next 30-40 years.
The trick for the UK post Starmer ( c 2029- 2034), say in 5-10 years is to decide on a vision that can work/collaborate with a moribund & weakened EU but seek opportunities in faster growing non protectionist economies in Asia - we've quite some way to go but it's all feasible.

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